A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Both composes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
