Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
